CASH RUNWAY
When does cash cross the line management actually cares about?
A zero-cash date is too late to be useful. Set a minimum operating reserve, add expected one-off inflows/outflows and compare the base case with a simple downside case.
CASH VIEW
Recurring monthly net burn-
Runway to minimum reserve-
Runway to zero-
Cash after 13 weeks - base case-
Cash after 13 weeks - downside-
The output will tell you whether a monthly-average model is enough or whether timing has become urgent.
Build a weekly 13-week cash forecastDOWNSIDE ASSUMPTION
One stress case is better than one comfortable forecast.
The downside percentages are editable inputs. The starting values are only a scenario suggestion, not a probability estimate or a forecast of what will happen.
Important: two businesses can have the same monthly burn and very different risk because payroll, VAT, rent, supplier payments and customer receipts land on different days. When reserve runway is tight, replace monthly averages with a week-by-week schedule.