Payment decisions are made on the bank balance
If which supplier gets paid depends on what cleared this morning, you are managing cash reactively and paying for it in supplier terms and relationships.
CASH & WORKING CAPITAL
Profitable businesses do not fail. They run out of cash.
13-week rolling cash forecasting, receivables and inventory control, and working capital release for Dubai and UAE businesses — so that funding becomes a choice rather than an emergency.
From AED 4,500 / month · Fixed fee agreed in writing before work starts
AT A GLANCE
Indicative scope. Final deliverables confirmed after the diagnostic.
Horizon13 weeks, weekly
BasisBottom-up, not trend
LeversQuantified in AED
UpdateEvery week
THE PROBLEM
The gap between profit and cash is where most growing UAE businesses get into trouble, and it is almost always structural rather than mysterious. You are funding customers who pay in 90 days while paying suppliers in 30. You are holding inventory that turns four times a year when it could turn seven. You paid a year of rent upfront because that is how the lease was written. You made a Corporate Tax provision nobody modelled into the cash plan. Each is individually explainable. Together they consume every dirham the business earns.
The dangerous part is that this is invisible in the P&L. A business can post record profit and be twelve days from a payroll problem, because the income statement measures performance and says nothing about timing.
We build the forward cash view, quantify each lever in dirhams rather than in advice, and run it weekly.
IS THIS YOU?
The symptoms.
If two or more of these are true, the diagnostic is the cheapest place to start. It is a fixed fee and it ends in a written findings note you own.
Receivables are ageing and nobody owns collection
Collection is a process with a named owner, an escalation ladder and a weekly review — not a task that happens when someone remembers.
Growth is making cash worse
Growing businesses consume working capital. Doubling revenue with the same terms doubles the funding requirement. This is normal, and it must be planned rather than discovered.
There is no forward view beyond this month
A month-end cash figure is a rear-view mirror. Thirteen weeks is enough time to actually do something.
Overdraft or facility is permanently drawn
A revolving facility used as permanent funding is expensive structural debt wearing a short-term label.
Tax and rent land as surprises
VAT payments, Corporate Tax instalments, annual rent and licence renewals are all known amounts on known dates. There is no excuse for them to be a shock.
THE 13-WEEK MODEL
Built from the ledger, updated weekly.
Bottom-up construction
Receipts are built from the actual receivables ledger, customer by customer, with realistic payment behaviour applied rather than contractual terms — because what a customer has historically done is a better predictor than what they agreed to do. Payments are built from the payables ledger, payroll schedule, rent and lease calendar, loan repayments, VAT and Corporate Tax dates, and committed capex.
Weekly rolling update
Every week the model rolls forward, actuals are compared against forecast, and variance is explained. The forecast improves because it is corrected against reality rather than being rebuilt from scratch each quarter.
Stress testing
We run the downside: what happens if the largest customer pays 30 days late, if sales fall 15%, if a supplier withdraws credit terms. Knowing the breaking point in advance turns a crisis into a plan.
The alert threshold
We agree a minimum cash buffer with you, and the model flags when the forecast breaches it — with enough notice to act, which is the entire point.
RELEASING TRAPPED CASH
Usually more available internally than externally.
Receivables
Invoice promptly and correctly — a surprising share of late payment is caused by invoice errors and disputes rather than unwillingness. Then a defined ageing review, named ownership, a written escalation ladder, and terms enforced consistently. Reducing debtor days from 75 to 55 on AED 30 million of revenue releases roughly AED 1.6 million of cash, permanently, at no cost.
Inventory
Slow-moving and obsolete stock is cash converted into shelf space. We identify it, quantify it and recommend clearing it — then set reorder levels and cover targets that match actual demand rather than purchasing habit.
Supplier terms
Terms are negotiable more often than owners assume, particularly where you have grown and your volume has changed but your terms have not. Extending payables from 30 to 45 days is a permanent working capital improvement, provided it is agreed rather than taken unilaterally.
The order of operations
We work internal levers first because they are free, then structure external funding for what remains — with the model in hand, which materially improves the conversation with a lender.
WHAT YOU RECEIVE
Deliverables, listed — so scope is never a debate.
Everything below is included as standard at the scope agreed in your engagement letter. If something falls outside it, we tell you before we do it, not after.
Included as standard
- 13-week rolling cash flow model, updated weekly
- Receivables ageing analysis and collection framework
- Payables and supplier terms review
- Inventory cover and obsolescence analysis
- Working capital cycle measurement and target setting
- Cash conversion bridge from profit to cash
- Downside scenario and stress testing
- Minimum cash buffer policy and alert thresholds
- Funding requirement analysis and lender pack support
- Weekly cash review meeting
HOW WE START
Four stages. The first one is small on purpose.
Map
Measure the current cash cycle and quantify where cash is trapped.
Model
Build the 13-week bottom-up forecast and agree the buffer policy.
Release
Execute the receivables, inventory and terms improvements with owners and deadlines.
Control
Weekly rolling update, variance review and forward alerts.
QUESTIONS
Before you engage.
Clear scope is a feature. Where work requires a separately licensed professional — a registered tax agent, a licensed auditor, a lawyer — the engagement says so in writing.
What is a 13-week cash flow forecast?
A weekly view of expected cash receipts and payments over the next thirteen weeks, built bottom-up from actual ledgers rather than extrapolated from historical trend. Thirteen weeks is used because it is long enough to see a problem forming and short enough for the detail to remain reliable.
How is this different from what our accountant produces?
A cash flow statement in the accounts explains how cash moved historically, in three categories, at monthly or annual granularity. A 13-week forecast is a forward operational control at weekly granularity, showing named customer receipts and specific payment runs. It is a management tool, not a reporting output.
How much cash can we realistically release?
It varies, but for most UAE SMEs with 60-plus debtor days and unmanaged inventory, releasing 10 to 20 days of working capital is achievable within a quarter. On AED 30 million of revenue that is roughly AED 800,000 to AED 1.6 million. We quantify the specific opportunity during the diagnostic before you commit to anything.
Can you help us get a bank facility?
We prepare the financial pack, the forecast and the supporting analysis lenders ask for, and we support you through their questions. We are not a licensed credit broker or arranger and do not receive commission from lenders. Our position is that internal working capital levers should be exhausted first, because they are free.
Who updates the model each week?
We do, as part of the retainer, unless you would rather own it internally — in which case we build it, train your team, and review it with you weekly until it is reliable in their hands.
Does this cover VAT and Corporate Tax payments?
Yes, explicitly. VAT payment dates, Corporate Tax instalments and any provision build-up are modelled as scheduled outflows. Tax being treated as a surprise is one of the most common and most avoidable cash failures we see.
NEXT STEP
Start with the actual problem, not a proposal.
Tell us the current setup — entities, systems, transaction volume, what is going wrong. We aim to reply within one business day with a scoped next step and an indicative fee range.